Benjamin Leard

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Welcome to my research page! My research focuses on building models for assessing the effects of climate and transportation policies in the United States. To perform policy analysis, I often build models of consumer and firm decision making based on a combination of reduced-form and structural econometrics and economic theory. A structural model that I use frequently in my recent research is discrete choice, such as the decision for a household to buy an electric vehicle. For example, in a recently published paper in the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, my coauthor Kevin Ankney and I built a model of the consumer choice to buy an electric vehicle in response a proposed subsidy program that would have required scrapping an old gasoline vehicle. We evaluated the policy based on economic efficiency, emissions outcomes, and distributional effects.

The objective of my research is to facilitate the design of efficient and fair policies. Policies and their intended effects can be complex affecting many types of consumers and producers making nontrivial choices. The models that I build represent abstractions meant to create new ways of understanding a policy and its potential effects. A goal of my research is to create tractable models that incorporate key decision makers, choices, and policy details. I work on projects with the intention that they produce model outcomes, such as parameter estimates or simulation output, that can inform and improve policy decisions.                                    

Working Papers

State Differences in Light-Duty Vehicle Survival Rates (with David L. Greene, Arthur Yip, Ruixiao Sun, and Ranjun K. Bose), 2025 UTK Baker School Center for Energy, Transportation & Environmental Policy Working Paper

How Much Do Consumers Value Fuel Cost Savings? Evidence from Passenger Vehicle Leasing (with Kevin Ankney) 2023 RFF Working Paper 21-27

Vehicle Attribute Tradeoffs and the Distributional Effects of US Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards (with Joshua Linn and Katalin Springel) 2023 RFF Working Paper  RFF Blog Post 

Peer-Reviewed Publications

Should Electric Vehicle Purchase Subsidies be Linked with Scrappage Requirements? (with Kevin Ankney), Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2025, 44(2): 553-578. RFF Working Paper

Trends in scrappage and survival of U.S. light-duty vehicles (with David Greene), Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2024, 180, 1-24. UTK Baker School Working paper

Coordinating the electric vehicle transition and electricity grid decarbonization in the U.S. is not essential to achieving long-term carbon dioxide emissions reductions (with David Greene), Environmental Research Letters, 2023, 18, 1-11.

Firms and Collective Reputation: a Study of the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal (with Rüdiger Bachmann, Gabriel Ehrlich, Ying Fan, and Dimitrije Ruzic), Journal of the European Economic Association, 2023, 21-2. Working paper

How Much Do Consumers Value Fuel Economy and Performance? Evidence from Technology Adoption (with Joshua Linn and Christy Zhou), The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2023, 105-1. RFF Working Paper  RFF Resources Article  RFF Blog Post 

Estimating Consumer Substitution Between New and Used Passenger Vehicles, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 2022, 9-1: 27-49. RFF Working Paper

Interpreting Tradable Credit Prices in Overlapping Vehicle Regulations (with Virginia McConnell), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,  2021, 109: 1-8. RFF Working Paper

What Does an Electric Vehicle Replace? (with Jianwei Xing and Shanjun Li), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2021, 107: 1-33.  NBER Working Paper  RFF Working Paper  RFF Resources Article  NBER Digest

Pushing New Technology into the Market: California’s Evolving Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate (with Virginia McConnell), Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2021, 15(1): 169-179.  RFF Blog Post A longer version is available as an RFF working paper: California’s evolving zero emission vehicle program: Pulling new technology into the market (with Virginia McConnell and Fred Kardos) 2019 RFF Working Paper 19-51

The Effect of Fuel Price Changes on Fleet Demand for New Vehicle Fuel Economy (with Virginia McConnell and Christy Zhou), Journal of Industrial Economics, 2019, 67(1): 127-159. RFF Working Paper  RFF Resources Article 

Explaining the Evolution of Vehicle Miles Traveled in the United States (with Joshua Linn and Clayton Munnings), The Energy Journal, 2019, 40(1): 25-54. RFF Working Paper 

Voluntary Exposure Benefits and the Costs of Climate Change (with Kevin Roth), Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 2019, 6(1): 151-185. RFF Working Paper  RFF Resources Article This publication is a revised version a prior paper titled "Weather, Traffic Accidents, and Climate Change" with an associated Resources for the Future working paper.

Flawed Analyses of U.S. Auto Fuel Economy Standards (with Antonio M. Bento, Kenneth Gillingham, Mark R. Jacobsen, Christopher R. Knittel, Joshua Linn, Virginia McConnell, David Rapson, James M. Sallee, Arthur A. van Benthem, and Kate S. Whitefoot), Science, 2018, 362(6419): 1119-1121. Supplementary Materials

Consumer Inattention and the Demand for Vehicle Fuel Cost Savings, Journal of Choice Modeling, 2018, 29: 1-16. RFF Working Paper

How Do Low Gas Prices Affect Costs and Benefits of US New Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards? (with Joshua Linn and Virginia McConnell), Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, 2018, 7(2). RFF Policy Brief

New Markets for Credit Trading Under U.S. Automobile Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards (with Virginia McConnell), Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2017, 11(2): 207-226. RFF Report  RFF Resources Article  RFF Blog Post

Fuel Prices, New Vehicle Fuel Economy, and Implications for Attribute-Based Standards (with Joshua Linn and Virginia McConnell), Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 2017, 4(3): 659-700. RFF Working Paper  RFF Blog Post

Are Consumers Willing to Pay to Let Cars Drive for Them? Analyzing Response to Autonomous Vehicles (with Ricardo Daziano and Mauricio Sarrias), Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2017, 78: 150-164. RFF Working Paper  RFF Resources Article  RFF Podcast  NBER Presentation Slides 

On the Importance of Baseline Setting in Carbon Offsets Markets (with Antonio Bento and Ravi Kanbur), Climatic Change, 2016, 137(3): 625-637. RFF Working Paper. This publication is a revised version a prior paper titled "Super-Additionality: A Neglected Force in Markets for Carbon Offsets" with an associated Dyson School Working Paper.

Designing Efficient Markets for Carbon Offsets with Distributional Constraints (with Antonio Bento and Ravi Kanbur), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2015, 70(2): 51-71.

The Welfare Effects of Allowance Banking in Emissions Trading Programs, Environmental and Resource Economics, 2013, 55(2): 175-197.

Equivalencies in the Fishery (with Jon Conrad), Natural Resource Modeling, 2013, 26(2): 154-163.

Earlier Peer-Reviewed Publications 

Variations in Home Advantage: Evidence from the National Hockey League (with Joanne Doyle), Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2012, 8(2): 1-27.

The Effect of Home Advantage, Momentum, and Fighting on Winning in the National Hockey League, (with Joanne Doyle) Journal of Sports Economics, 2011, 12(5): 538-560.

Analysis of Predator–Prey Models with Continuous Threshold Harvesting (with Jorge Rebaza), Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2011, 217(12): 5265-5278.

An Optimal Strategy for Energy Allocation in a Multiple Resource Environment (with D. Brian Walton and Anthony Tongen), Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 2010, 72: 1092-1123.

Dynamics of Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey Models with Nonconstant Harvesting (with Catherine Lewis and Jorge Rebaza) Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems-S, 2008, 1(2): 303-315.

Non-Peer Reviewed Publications

Pain at the (Electric Vehicle) Pump? (with Beia Spiller and Trenton Marable), 2025 Resources Magazine Issue 218, Spring 2025

New Passenger Vehicle Demand Elasticities: Estimates and Policy Implications (with Yidi Wu), 2023 RFF Working Paper 23-33

Federal Climate Policy 104: The Transportation Sector, 2021 RFF Explainer 

Progress and Potential for Electric Vehicles to Reduce Carbon Emissions (with Virginia McConnell), 2020 RFF Report 20-16

Carbon Pricing 202: Pricing Carbon in the Transportation Sector (with Joshua Linn and Kathryne Cleary), 2020 RFF Explainer

What Does Ridesharing Replace? (with Jianwei Xing), 2020 RFF Working Paper 20-03

Targeting Subsidies to Get More Electric Vehicles on the Road. RFF Resources Magazine Issue 202, Fall 2019

Fuelling Behaviour Change, Nature Energy News & Views, 2018, 3: 541-542.

Comments to NHTSA and US EPA on the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021-2026: Passenger Cars and Light Trucks (with Joshua Linn, Alan J. Krupnick, and Virginia McConnell) Public Comments, October 2018

Fleet Vehicles and Fuel Economy: How Do Fuel Prices Affect Vehicle Purchase Decisions for Big Buyers? (with Virginia McConnell and Christy Zhou) RFF Resources Magazine Issue 197, Spring 2018

The Benefits of Flexible Policy Design: US Energy Conservation Standards for Appliances (with Josh Blonz and Karen Palmer) RFF Resources Magazine Issue 197, Spring 2018

Comments on the US Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s Request for Information on Energy Conservation Standards Program Design (with Josh Blonz and Karen Palmer) RFF Report, February 2018

The Effect of Standards for New Vehicle Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions on US Consumers (with Joshua Linn and Christy Zhou) RFF Resources Magazine Issue 195, Fall 2017

The Net Emissions Impact of HFC-23 Offset Projects from the Clean Development Mechanism (with Clayton Munnings and Antonio Bento) 2016 RFF Discussion Paper 16-01

Fuel Prices, Economic Activity, and the Rebound Effect for Heavy-Duty Trucks (with Joshua Linn, Virginia McConnell and William Raich) 2016 RFF Discussion Paper 15-43 REV

How Climate Change Affects Traffic Accidents (with Kevin Roth) RFF Resources Magazine Issue 191, Winter 2016

Comments on Midterm Evaluation Draft Technical Assessment Report for Model Year 2022-2025 Light Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards (with Joshua Linn, Virginia McConnell and Kenneth Gillingham) RFF Report, September 2016

Do Low Oil Prices Undermine US Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards? (with Joshua Linn and Virginia McConnell) RFF Policy Brief, July 2016, No. 16-08

Comment on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy- Duty Engines and Vehicles; Phase 2. NHTSA-2014-0132-0109. The Potential for Improvement in On-road Truck Fuel Economy: Evidence from the VIUS (with Jen He and Virginia McConnell)